National Weather Service (2024)

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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547FXUS61 KGYX 110233AFDGYXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Gray ME1033 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024.SYNOPSIS...Somewhat unsettled daytime weather is expected to continueinto Wednesday as upper level low pressure lingers overhead.Warmer and drier weather is expected Thursday with a coldfrontal passage possible Friday with more showers andthunderstorms. High pressure moves in for the weekend.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

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1030 PM Update... Stratus continues over the western MEmountains as well as northern and western NH with mainly clearskies elsewhere. These clear skies and diminishing winds arebeginning to allow for radiational cooling. Only minoradjustments were needed to sky cover and overnight temperaturesbased on latest trends and hi-res guidance.Previously...630 PM Update... Diurnally driven showers continue to dissipateas they sink south and east this evening with some clearing nowtaking place across portions of the interior within thedownslope flow. This drying trend will continue to be the themethrough this evening as skies clear overnight. Other thantweaking winds and sky cover, as well as loading in the latestobservations, the inherited forecast remains on track.Previously...Any diurnal showers quickly dissipate this evening with the lossof heating. A few may linger longer in the mountains. Cloudswill also diminish with the loss of heating, but will likelylast into the night in the mountains. Low temperatures based ona blend of MOS guidance. Areas of fog may develop, especiallyin the northern valleys.

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&&.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Upper low continues to hang around over northern New England onTuesday. This will allow for the repeat development of boundarylayer cumulus and scattered showers, with highest PoPs acrosseastern zones where mid and upper level temperatures will belower. Highs will be in the 70s nearly all locations excepthigher elevations.Similar to this evening and tonight, clouds and showers willdiminish with loss of heating, with some valley fog possible.&&.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...Overview: Mid to late week will feature a pattern change,mainly noticeable by warmer temperatures and increasing chancesof showers and thunderstorms Friday. A more seasonable weekendsets up with drier conditions before another likely warmup intoearly next week.Details: Tuesday will be a good test for how shower coveragemay be on Wednesday. Still some uncertainty on how this playsout due to weak instability and shear, but guidance QPFproviding a good footprint of showers. Believe the solution willbe seeing how CAMs entertain this environment. Current thinkingis a lot of this lift will be from convergence over the higherterrain or a pop up shower or two outside of this region. Thesewould be short lived and rain themselves out, but outflow couldset off neighboring showers as well. Either way, kept the bestchances again over the higher terrain, with lesser chancesacross the interior and coast. The chance of these locationsseeing a washout are low, and would expect cells to remainisolated amid the cloudy sky.Thursday, temperatures increase with warm front approachingalong the Quebec border. Timing and potency of this front is inquestion, and could influence some precip during the day. Moreinteresting day of weather may be on Friday as low pressuretracks just to the west. Warm temps will be ahead of this, withNBM bringing some southern NH cities into the upper 80s toaround 90. Cold front should push across the warm sector in NewEngland with the chance for thunderstorms. Ensemble profiles, ascoarse as they are, do show decent deep shear. Still plenty ofvariation in instability parameters, likely dependent on frontalpassage or perhaps upstream convection moving east into theregion. Closer to the axis of the low, some training showers orstorms will be possible, with a WPC Marginal Risk of excessiverainfall noted towards the NH/ME border with Quebec.High pressure and more seasonable temps follow up for theweekend. It looks pleasant as drier air moves down for a breakbefore another possible warm up to well above normal temps inthe extended next week.&&.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Short Term...Widely scattered showers will dissipate thisevening with loss of daytime heating. We expected VFR conditionsovernight except where areas of fog develop. VFR conditions areexpected Tuesday with widely scattered afternoon showers onceagain.Long Term...SHRA possible across the interior Wednesday, andpotentially Thursday as well. Locations may see overnight valleyfog development. Warm, moist air over the coastal waters maycreate patches of low stratus or fog near coastal terminals likeRKD and PWM.&&.MARINE...Short Term...West winds of 10 to 15 kt will continue tonight,with more of a turn to the south Tuesday. Seas remain 2 to 3feet.Long Term...Seas should remain 2 to 3 ft through the period withmainly southerly winds. A warm front may cross the watersThursday into Friday, with a cold front then passing the watersFriday.&&.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...ME...None.NH...None.MARINE...None.&&$$NEAR TERM...Tubbs
National Weather Service (2024)

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